Slovakia election 2023: exit poll shows Progressives in lead – live


Exit poll shows Progressive Slovakia in lead

An exit poll conducted by the Focus agency for TV Markíza is now public:

Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia: 23.5%

Robert Fico’s Smer: 21.9%

Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas: 12.2%

Slovak exit poll
Slovak exit poll Photograph: Focus agency for TV Markíza

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Prediction

Progressive Slovakia “will see its vote increase, but maybe not enough to come 1st,” tweeted Tim Haughton, a professor of comparative and European politics at the University of Birmingham.

Where the first 25% votes were counted – given that no surprise Smer doing well and the Hungarian Aliancia. PS will see its vote increase, but maybe not enough to come 1st pic.twitter.com/b2hghPCuUv

— Tim Haughton (@HaughtonTim) September 30, 2023

With less than a third of votes counted, this is where the results stand, according to Slovakia’s statistics office.

Slovakia early election results, with less than a third of votes counted
Slovakia early election results, with less than a third of votes counted Photograph: volbysr.sk

There are conflicting views on how to read early results.

Slovak daily Pravda’s Andrej Matisak says the exit polls were wrong. Others advise patience.

University College London lecturer Michal Ovádek cautions that early results do not include Bratislava – and are thus not indicative of the ultimate outcome.

PSA on #SlovakiaElections: the first 20% of the votes counted includes virtually no votes from the capital and only a limited number from other cities. The exit poll will not be fully accurate but the current results are not at all representative

— Michal Ovádek (@michal_ovadek) September 30, 2023

Long night ahead

There appears to be a big disparity between the first exit poll and first real results.

Nevertheless, many votes – including in the capital – have yet to be counted.

Robert Fico’s Smer in lead as votes counted

Despite exit polls showing that Progressive Slovakia would come in first, with 20% of votes counted the picture favours Smer.

Slovak election results, with 20.85% of votes counted
Slovak election results, with 20.85% of votes counted Photograph: aktuality.sk

Waiting for results

With only 18% of votes counted, Smer is officially in the lead – but it remains unclear how representative those counted votes are of the full electorate. Stay tuned.

What could the new Slovak parliament look like?

Denník N made a calculation based on the Focus exit poll for TV Markíza.

Reactions to the first exit polls, in photos

The leader of the Progressive Slovakia political party, Michal Šimečka, addresses media at the party’s headquartersafter the first exit polls.
The leader of the Progressive Slovakia political party, Michal Šimečka, addresses media at the party’s headquartersafter the first exit polls. Photograph: Vladimír Šimíček/AFP/Getty Images
Progressive Slovakia supporters react to the first exit polls at the party’s headquarters.
Progressive Slovakia supporters react to the first exit polls at the party’s headquarters. Photograph: Vladimír Šimíček/AFP/Getty Images

Far-right in

Both exit polls indicate that the far-right Republika party made it into parliament with around 6% of the vote.

Hungarian party falls short

Both the Focus and Median exit polls indicate that Szövetség–Aliancia (Alliance) did not pass the 5% threshold to make it into parliament.

Eyes on small parties

While it appears that Progressive Slovakia has a narrow lead over Smer, much will depend on smaller parties – and who makes it into parliament.

While one exit poll has the nationalist Slovak National party (SNS) as out of the game, another indicates it will make it into parliament – thus giving Smer’s Robert Fico another possible coalition partner.

Another exit poll gives progressives narrow lead

An exit poll conducted by Median for RTVS also puts Progressive Slovakia ahead of Smer, very narrowly.

Exit poll in Slovakia's election
Exit poll in Slovakia’s election Photograph: MEDIAN SK for RTVS

Tough coalition-building to come

The first exit poll points to a hung parliament, said Milan Nič, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations and expert on Slovakia.

The poll also indicates a first mandate for Progressive Slovakia to lead coalition talks, Nič told the Guardian.

One crucial thing to watch, he added, is whether the nationalist Slovak National party (SNS) will pass the 5% threshold to enter parliament.

“Their 9-10 mandates would change the parliamentary arithmetic in favour of a Fico-led coalition,” he said.

Big night for progressives

If the first exit poll is accurate, Progressive Slovakia and its leader – 39-year old European parliament member Michal Šimečka are having a great night.

Supporters of Progressive Slovakia in Bratislava react to the first exit polls.
Supporters of Progressive Slovakia in Bratislava react to the first exit polls. Photograph: Radovan Stoklasa/Reuters

Exit poll shows Progressive Slovakia in lead

An exit poll conducted by the Focus agency for TV Markíza is now public:

Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia: 23.5%

Robert Fico’s Smer: 21.9%

Peter Pellegrini’s Hlas: 12.2%

Slovak exit poll
Slovak exit poll Photograph: Focus agency for TV Markíza

‘Positive yet humble spirits’ at Progressive Slovakia election night event

In a text message from Progressive Slovakia’s election event this evening, MEP Martin Hojsík described the mood as “positive yet humble spirits and friendly atmosphere”.

“The campaign was dirty. We had to face lots of misinformation and attacks but are happy that we managed to stay focused on presenting our message,” he told the Guardian.

“People here have given their best and now it’s in the hands of the voters,” Hojsík added.

People react as Progressive Slovakia party leader Michal Šimečka speaks on stage at his party’s headquarters.
People react as Progressive Slovakia party leader Michal Šimečka speaks on stage at his party’s headquarters. Photograph: Radovan Stoklasa/Reuters

And now the question we’re all asking…

TV Markíza’s exit poll shows that one party is leading at 23.5%. But is it the populist former prime minister Robert Fico’s Smer, or the pro-EU Progressive Slovakia party?

We will find out at 10.45pm CET.

First exit poll shows tight results

A first exit poll, conducted by the Focus agency for TV Markíza, shows that one Slovak political party is expected to get 23.5% of the vote, while another is expected to receive 21.9%.

The parties are not named due to a moratorium on publishing exit polls, which will be lifted at 10.45pm CET.

Slovak exit poll
Slovak exit poll. Photograph: Focus agency for TV Markíza
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